FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.65 – 211.5

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.4 ±10.4

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 14.05Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 4.08Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 18.52Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.2 ±9.8

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 69.36Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 48.73Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 93.41Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11277, 9444, 2687

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11277, 9444, 2687

Auto

20.7 60%

Teleop

6.8 20%

Endgame

7.2 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10014, 5261, 6377

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10014, 5261, 6377

Auto

61.8 28%

Teleop

88.8 41%

Endgame

66.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score36.7pts

Blue projected score211.5pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -174.8
Score range: -12–261
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 396 vs event baseline 271.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.4Season APEX420.2

20.7Auto61.8

6.8Teleop88.8

7.2Endgame66.4

146Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	38
teleop	10	253
endgame	22	52
foul	0	0
total	53	343

Result

Final score

53 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree