FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.19 – 404.89

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 462

Prediction correct · off by 33 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.1 ±10.4

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 24.67Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 71.63Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 50.89Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 574.3 ±9.8

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 62.81Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 227.31Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 114.77Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11277, 5892, 10994

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11277, 5892, 10994

Auto

33.0 23%

Teleop

74.8 51%

Endgame

37.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8088, 6800, 324

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8088, 6800, 324

Auto

87.6 22%

Teleop

215.0 53%

Endgame

102.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score147.2pts

Blue projected score404.9pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -257.7
Score range: 96–456
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 618 vs event baseline 283.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.1Season APEX574.3

33Auto87.6

74.8Teleop215

37.8Endgame102.3

117Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	120
teleop	74	239
endgame	56	103
foul	0	0
total	156	462

Result

Final score

156 – 462

Prediction correct · off by 33 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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