FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

257.84 – 198.94

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.6 ±8.4

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 61.88Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 31.35Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 164.61Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.5 ±9.8

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 13.54Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 41.45Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 143.95Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11242, 7691, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11242, 7691, 118

Auto

44.0 18%

Teleop

141.3 56%

Endgame

65.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 3676, 8370, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3676, 8370, 3847

Auto

30.5 15%

Teleop

116.2 58%

Endgame

54.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score257.8pts

Blue projected score198.9pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.9
Score range: 150–307
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 272.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.6Season APEX358.5

44Auto30.5

141.3Teleop116.2

65.2Endgame54.6

97Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	49
teleop	108	106
endgame	78	32
foul	5	30
total	250	217

Result

Final score

250 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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