FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

304.4 – 320.74

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

353 – 285

Prediction missed · off by 42.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465 ±9.8

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 75.63Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 124.77Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 104Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 498.2 ±9.3

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 179.98Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 0.29Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 140.47Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3735, 1477, 324

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3735, 1477, 324

Auto

54.8 19%

Teleop

151.8 53%

Endgame

79.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2881, 11200, 2582

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2881, 11200, 2582

Auto

28.7 9%

Teleop

177.2 56%

Endgame

108.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score304.4pts

Blue projected score320.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.3
Score range: 255–370
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 638 vs event baseline 271.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465Season APEX498.2

54.8Auto28.7

151.8Teleop177.2

79.1Endgame108.4

123Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	82
teleop	234	199
endgame	89	4
foul	0	0
total	353	285

Result

Final score

353 – 285

Prediction missed · off by 42.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree