FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.93 – 258.09

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.2 ±10.4

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 31.95Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 85.13Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 61.85Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.8 ±10.4

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 87.22Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 76.36Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 94.51Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8088, 5892, 6901

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8088, 5892, 6901

Auto

47.5 26%

Teleop

98.3 54%

Endgame

35.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7503, 2587, 4734

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7503, 2587, 4734

Auto

43.8 17%

Teleop

158.5 61%

Endgame

56.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score178.9pts

Blue projected score258.1pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.2
Score range: 130–307
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 272.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255.2Season APEX339.8

47.5Auto43.8

98.3Teleop158.5

35.5Endgame56

75Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	24
teleop	111	107
endgame	80	84
foul	0	0
total	241	215

Result

Final score

241 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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