FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

207.62 – 302.72

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

276 – 376

Prediction correct · off by 70.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.7 ±9.8

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 31.98Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 149.68Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 25.96Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.1 ±9.8

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 19.22Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 135.59Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 147.91Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10032, 1296, 8507

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10032, 1296, 8507

Auto

62.6 31%

Teleop

97.6 48%

Endgame

41.7 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9577, 3005, 6672

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9577, 3005, 6672

Auto

44.8 15%

Teleop

184.3 62%

Endgame

70.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score207.6pts

Blue projected score302.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.1
Score range: 159–352
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 652 vs event baseline 271.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.7Season APEX417.1

62.6Auto44.8

97.6Teleop184.3

41.7Endgame70.1

56Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	74
teleop	159	256
endgame	103	46
foul	0	0
total	276	376

Result

Final score

276 – 376

Prediction correct · off by 70.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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