FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.45 – 219.69

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

245 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.6 ±9.8

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 42.11Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 120.18Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 67.16Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.2 ±10.4

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 81.14Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 39Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 99.55Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1255, 5829, 4295

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1255, 5829, 4295

Auto

56.6 26%

Teleop

127.3 58%

Endgame

34.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3679, 5417, 3481

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3679, 5417, 3481

Auto

32.8 16%

Teleop

111.1 53%

Endgame

66.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score229.5pts

Blue projected score219.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.8
Score range: 171–278
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 510 vs event baseline 271.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.6Season APEX278.2

56.6Auto32.8

127.3Teleop111.1

34.1Endgame66.9

64Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	21
teleop	117	105
endgame	77	79
foul	5	60
total	245	265

Result

Final score

245 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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