FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.62 – 641.57

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

276 – 558

Prediction correct · off by 93.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.8 ±9.8

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 12.78Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 87.29Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 72.55Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 960.5 ±8.7

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 243.5Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 167.52Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 230.55Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9492, 624, 7506

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9492, 624, 7506

Auto

31.1 18%

Teleop

91.9 52%

Endgame

53.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6800, 2468, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

641.6 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6800, 2468, 10340

Auto

74.0 12%

Teleop

394.5 62%

Endgame

169.2 27%

Strengths

· 6800 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.56 · Blue 2.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score172.6pts

Blue projected score641.6pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -468.9
Score range: 125–690
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 834 vs event baseline 268.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.8Season APEX960.5

31.1Auto74

91.9Teleop394.5

53.3Endgame169.2

78Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	114
teleop	139	306
endgame	74	138
foul	5	0
total	276	558

Result

Final score

276 – 558

Prediction correct · off by 93.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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