FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

297 – 285.79

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

314 – 315

Prediction missed · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 429.3 ±9.8

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 145.94Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 102.23Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 48.83Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.7 ±10.4

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 8.79Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 127.48Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 149.52Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3847, 324, 10994

/ 100 compat

Projected

297 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3847, 324, 10994

Auto

49.0 17%

Teleop

191.3 66%

Endgame

51.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3676, 2728, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3676, 2728, 9418

Auto

43.3 15%

Teleop

155.5 53%

Endgame

92.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score297pts

Blue projected score285.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.2
Score range: 238–345
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 629 vs event baseline 267.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

429.3Season APEX317.7

49Auto43.3

191.3Teleop155.5

51.4Endgame92.4

54Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	38
teleop	156	190
endgame	102	87
foul	5	0
total	314	315

Result

Final score

314 – 315

Prediction missed · off by 23.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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