FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

201.46 – 424.61

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

240 – 563

Prediction correct · off by 88.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.1 ±10.4

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 89.4Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 34.91Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 77.15Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 618.9 ±9.3

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 130.28Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 162.44Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 131.89Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6377, 8370, 2587

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6377, 8370, 2587

Auto

48.6 24%

Teleop

88.1 44%

Endgame

62.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1296, 2881, 6672

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.6 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1296, 2881, 6672

Auto

52.0 12%

Teleop

266.0 63%

Endgame

104.6 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score201.5pts

Blue projected score424.6pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -223.1
Score range: 153–473
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 803 vs event baseline 268.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.1Season APEX618.9

48.6Auto52

88.1Teleop266

62.3Endgame104.6

135Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	119
teleop	142	328
endgame	65	111
foul	0	5
total	240	563

Result

Final score

240 – 563

Prediction correct · off by 88.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.