FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

285.58 – 375.92

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

328 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 514.5 ±9.3

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 131.65Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 30.25Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 123.68Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 505.6 ±8.4

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 165.6Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 119.68Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 90.64Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3005, 10032, 1477

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3005, 10032, 1477

Auto

49.1 17%

Teleop

172.3 59%

Endgame

68.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 118, 5829, 4734

/ 100 compat

Projected

375.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 118, 5829, 4734

Auto

62.7 17%

Teleop

241.2 66%

Endgame

63.0 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score285.6pts

Blue projected score375.9pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.3
Score range: 238–424
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 736 vs event baseline 266.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

514.5Season APEX505.6

49.1Auto62.7

172.3Teleop241.2

68.9Endgame63

143Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	72
teleop	170	240
endgame	109	96
foul	0	0
total	328	408

Result

Final score

328 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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