FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

236.98 – 326.03

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

211 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 52 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.1 ±10.4

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 85.07Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 31.63Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 120.28Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 514.3 ±8.4

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 126.08Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 193.66Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 6.29Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2587, 9577, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

237 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2587, 9577, 9418

Auto

42.6 18%

Teleop

123.9 54%

Endgame

64.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1477, 118, 2687

/ 100 compat

Projected

326 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1477, 118, 2687

Auto

56.6 18%

Teleop

166.1 52%

Endgame

98.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score237pts

Blue projected score326pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89
Score range: 186–377
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 283.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.1Season APEX514.3

42.6Auto56.6

123.9Teleop166.1

64.5Endgame98.2

85Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	40
teleop	87	126
endgame	104	82
foul	0	0
total	211	248

Result

Final score

211 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 52 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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