FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

365.63 – 171.2

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

416 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 563.2 ±9.3

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 58.66Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 79.42Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 227.55Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.2 ±9.8

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 71.63Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 35.61Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 63.96Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6901, 624, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

365.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6901, 624, 10340

Auto

41.5 11%

Teleop

239.4 65%

Endgame

87.3 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7506, 8088, 11242

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7506, 8088, 11242

Auto

48.9 30%

Teleop

50.2 30%

Endgame

65.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score365.6pts

Blue projected score171.2pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 194.4
Score range: 123–414
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 614 vs event baseline 265.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

563.2Season APEX416.2

41.5Auto48.9

239.4Teleop50.2

87.3Endgame65.8

79Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	55
teleop	259	90
endgame	105	53
foul	5	0
total	416	198

Result

Final score

416 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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