FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.34 – 233.22

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

196 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.3 ±10.4

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 22.01Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 49.87Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 153.46Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.1 ±9.8

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 66.35Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 139.65Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 27.22Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11277, 1255, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11277, 1255, 9418

Auto

31.0 14%

Teleop

129.0 57%

Endgame

65.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4295, 2582, 8507

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4295, 2582, 8507

Auto

48.1 21%

Teleop

108.8 48%

Endgame

69.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score225.3pts

Blue projected score233.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.9
Score range: 177–281
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 469 vs event baseline 265.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.3Season APEX369.1

31Auto48.1

129Teleop108.8

65Endgame69.2

75Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	62
teleop	110	128
endgame	40	68
foul	0	15
total	196	273

Result

Final score

196 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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