FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

394.97 – 241.66

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

341 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.2 ±9.8

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 87.94Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 54.68Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 252.35Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.3 ±9.8

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 25.49Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 172.58Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 43.59Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3735, 10994, 6800

/ 100 compat

Projected

395 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3735, 10994, 6800

Auto

53.0 14%

Teleop

200.0 53%

Endgame

124.7 33%

Strengths

· 6800 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2687, 2468, 5417

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2687, 2468, 5417

Auto

21.2 9%

Teleop

130.0 56%

Endgame

81.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score395pts

Blue projected score241.7pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 153.3
Score range: 194–443
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 581 vs event baseline 265.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524.2Season APEX449.3

53Auto21.2

200Teleop130

124.7Endgame81.8

151Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	16
teleop	154	142
endgame	65	82
foul	30	0
total	341	240

Result

Final score

341 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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