FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

332.46 – 106.14

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 75.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.6 ±10.4

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 145.54Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 70.89Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 116.03Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.8 ±10.4

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 19.06Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 8.29Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 78.79Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2728, 5261, 3481

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2728, 5261, 3481

Auto

69.8 22%

Teleop

189.5 59%

Endgame

64.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9577, 9492, 3679

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9577, 9492, 3679

Auto

26.5 25%

Teleop

33.2 31%

Endgame

46.8 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score332.5pts

Blue projected score106.1pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 226.3
Score range: 58–380
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 267.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.6Season APEX196.8

69.8Auto26.5

189.5Teleop33.2

64Endgame46.8

31Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	22
teleop	76	58
endgame	67	42
foul	0	5
total	202	127

Result

Final score

202 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 75.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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