FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.36 – 300.6

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

142 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.3 ±10.4

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 29.86Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 110.08Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 7.42Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 546.2 ±9.3

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 117.03Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 65.49Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 118.08Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10032, 324, 9444

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10032, 324, 9444

Auto

47.3 32%

Teleop

80.4 55%

Endgame

18.4 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5829, 2587, 3005

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5829, 2587, 3005

Auto

39.7 13%

Teleop

173.5 58%

Endgame

85.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score147.4pts

Blue projected score300.6pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -153.2
Score range: 99–349
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 267.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.3Season APEX546.2

47.3Auto39.7

80.4Teleop173.5

18.4Endgame85.8

74Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	81
teleop	118	215
endgame	1	63
foul	0	5
total	142	364

Result

Final score

142 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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