FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

427.97 – 308.36

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 330

Prediction missed · off by 146.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 592.7 ±9.3

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 189.8Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 70.16Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 168.01Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 612.7 ±8.4

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 74.49Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 68.88Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 164.99Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3847, 8088, 1296

/ 100 compat

Projected

428 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3847, 8088, 1296

Auto

83.6 19%

Teleop

242.0 56%

Endgame

106.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10014, 7506, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10014, 7506, 118

Auto

63.0 21%

Teleop

161.9 53%

Endgame

81.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score428pts

Blue projected score308.4pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.6
Score range: 260–476
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 268.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

592.7Season APEX612.7

83.6Auto63

242Teleop161.9

106.1Endgame81.3

96Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	75
teleop	70	136
endgame	27	104
foul	0	15
total	156	330

Result

Final score

156 – 330

Prediction missed · off by 146.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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