FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

245.75 – 324.97

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

273 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 73.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.8 ±9.8

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 118.73Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 14.3Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 112.72Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.6 ±9.8

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 54.02Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 26.8Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 244.15Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6672, 11277, 1477

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6672, 11277, 1477

Auto

21.9 9%

Teleop

138.3 56%

Endgame

88.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7691, 3676, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

325 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7691, 3676, 10340

Auto

41.5 13%

Teleop

208.1 65%

Endgame

69.6 22%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score245.8pts

Blue projected score325pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.2
Score range: 198–373
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 269.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.8Season APEX435.6

21.9Auto41.5

138.3Teleop208.1

88Endgame69.6

146Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	22
teleop	176	110
endgame	57	73
foul	0	0
total	273	205

Result

Final score

273 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 73.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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