FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

407.21 – 186.52

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

414 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 630.1 ±9.3

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 170.02Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 81.98Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 155.21Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.5 ±9.8

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 96.55Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 51.2Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 38.77Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2881, 4734, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.2 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2881, 4734, 2468

Auto

56.4 14%

Teleop

248.9 61%

Endgame

100.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 624, 1255, 5417

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 624, 1255, 5417

Auto

16.4 9%

Teleop

108.8 63%

Endgame

48.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.75 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score407.2pts

Blue projected score186.5pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 220.7
Score range: 139–455
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 536 vs event baseline 269.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

630.1Season APEX371.5

56.4Auto16.4

248.9Teleop108.8

100.5Endgame48.1

129Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	11
teleop	294	72
endgame	96	34
foul	0	5
total	414	122

Result

Final score

414 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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