FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

436.26 – 199.94

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

494 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 61.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.4 ±9.8

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 232.17Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 135.97Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 68.12Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.2 ±10.4

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -0.15Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 145.97Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 54.12Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6800, 9418, 5261

/ 100 compat

Projected

436.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6800, 9418, 5261

Auto

74.3 17%

Teleop

233.7 54%

Endgame

127.6 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11200, 2728, 8370

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11200, 2728, 8370

Auto

16.3 8%

Teleop

97.4 49%

Endgame

87.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.64 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score436.3pts

Blue projected score199.9pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 236.3
Score range: 152–484
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 629 vs event baseline 268.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.4Season APEX236.2

74.3Auto16.3

233.7Teleop97.4

127.6Endgame87

138Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	51
teleop	281	52
endgame	129	22
foul	0	10
total	494	135

Result

Final score

494 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 61.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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