FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.67 – 148.57

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 52 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.2 ±10.4

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 89.96Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX -7.08Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 96.79Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.9 ±9.8

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 82.51Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 24.72Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 41.34Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3481, 9492, 7503

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3481, 9492, 7503

Auto

49.2 27%

Teleop

102.1 56%

Endgame

30.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11242, 8507, 2687

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11242, 8507, 2687

Auto

29.6 23%

Teleop

56.8 44%

Endgame

42.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score179.7pts

Blue projected score148.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.1
Score range: 100–229
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 270.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.2Season APEX321.9

49.2Auto29.6

102.1Teleop56.8

30.5Endgame42

57Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	51
teleop	127	12
endgame	39	27
foul	0	0
total	225	90

Result

Final score

225 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 52 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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