FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

303.74 – 211.38

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437.8 ±9.8

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 42.98Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 218.31Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 42.45Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.9 ±10.4

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 23.95Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 115.26Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 72.17Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9492, 10340, 5417

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9492, 10340, 5417

Auto

38.9 13%

Teleop

175.0 59%

Endgame

82.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9444, 6377, 4734

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9444, 6377, 4734

Auto

47.2 22%

Teleop

124.7 59%

Endgame

38.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score303.7pts

Blue projected score211.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.4
Score range: 160–355
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 422 vs event baseline 283.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437.8Season APEX268.9

38.9Auto47.2

175Teleop124.7

82.8Endgame38.5

96Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	50
teleop	121	95
endgame	101	30
foul	0	5
total	242	180

Result

Final score

242 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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