FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

239.3 – 145.36

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.5 ±10.4

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 72.01Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 75.58Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 91.71Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.5 ±10.4

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 17.82Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 72.08Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 55.46Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3679, 3735, 6377

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3679, 3735, 6377

Auto

56.0 25%

Teleop

90.8 40%

Endgame

77.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9577, 4295, 6901

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9577, 4295, 6901

Auto

40.8 29%

Teleop

62.8 45%

Endgame

36.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.14 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score239.3pts

Blue projected score145.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.9
Score range: 96–288
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 272.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.5Season APEX203.5

56Auto40.8

90.8Teleop62.8

77.4Endgame36.1

149Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	40
teleop	133	53
endgame	68	28
foul	0	15
total	265	136

Result

Final score

265 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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