FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

177.47 – 287.52

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

374 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 106 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395 ±9.8

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 17.57Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 7.53Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 152.37Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.2 ±9.8

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 88.91Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 98.25Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 100.36Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7691, 5417, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7691, 5417, 3847

Auto

17.1 10%

Teleop

95.7 53%

Endgame

67.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4734, 624, 324

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4734, 624, 324

Auto

67.4 24%

Teleop

192.2 69%

Endgame

19.4 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score177.5pts

Blue projected score287.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110
Score range: 128–337
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 646 vs event baseline 273.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395Season APEX418.2

17.1Auto67.4

95.7Teleop192.2

67.2Endgame19.4

142Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	44
teleop	256	176
endgame	42	52
foul	30	0
total	374	272

Result

Final score

374 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 106 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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