FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.74 – 285.78

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

324 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 124.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.3 ±9.8

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 133.16Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 18.97Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 26.61Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.8 ±10.4

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 158.45Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 30.92Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 96.41Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2468, 10032, 8370

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2468, 10032, 8370

Auto

19.4 11%

Teleop

102.1 57%

Endgame

56.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2728, 11277, 8088

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2728, 11277, 8088

Auto

60.4 21%

Teleop

144.1 49%

Endgame

87.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score178.7pts

Blue projected score285.8pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107
Score range: 130–335
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 274.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.3Season APEX285.8

19.4Auto60.4

102.1Teleop144.1

56.4Endgame87.7

119Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	47
teleop	183	77
endgame	84	58
foul	0	0
total	324	182

Result

Final score

324 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 124.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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