FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

325.28 – 168.7

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

272 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.3 ±9.8

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 72.99Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 108.57Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 143.72Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.3 ±9.8

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 100.02Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 65.23Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 3.45Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7506, 7503, 3005

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7506, 7503, 3005

Auto

51.1 15%

Teleop

204.1 61%

Endgame

79.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1477, 5261, 11200

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1477, 5261, 11200

Auto

35.9 20%

Teleop

69.4 39%

Endgame

72.9 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score325.3pts

Blue projected score168.7pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.6
Score range: 119–375
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 275.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.3Season APEX348.3

51.1Auto35.9

204.1Teleop69.4

79Endgame72.9

64Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	24
teleop	155	86
endgame	60	84
foul	0	5
total	272	199

Result

Final score

272 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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