FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

336.23 – 266.03

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

385 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.8 ±9.8

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 242.62Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 62.16Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 31.45Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.5 ±10.4

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 137.55Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 41.36Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 87.12Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10340, 3679, 1255

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10340, 3679, 1255

Auto

47.8 14%

Teleop

207.9 61%

Endgame

82.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6672, 2687, 3735

/ 100 compat

Projected

266 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6672, 2687, 3735

Auto

41.4 17%

Teleop

114.0 47%

Endgame

89.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score336.2pts

Blue projected score266pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.2
Score range: 217–385
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 603 vs event baseline 274.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480.8Season APEX302.5

47.8Auto41.4

207.9Teleop114

82.8Endgame89.7

90Consistency165

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	24
teleop	235	119
endgame	81	55
foul	15	20
total	385	218

Result

Final score

385 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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