FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

215.93 – 298.02

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

245 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.2 ±9.8

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX -2.67Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 66.33Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 152.27Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.3 ±10.4

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 127.43Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 104.84Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 65.75Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9492, 6901, 1296

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9492, 6901, 1296

Auto

46.1 21%

Teleop

126.9 58%

Endgame

45.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9418, 5892, 4295

/ 100 compat

Projected

298 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9418, 5892, 4295

Auto

78.5 26%

Teleop

146.5 49%

Endgame

72.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.23 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score215.9pts

Blue projected score298pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.1
Score range: 167–347
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 555 vs event baseline 274.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.2Season APEX296.3

46.1Auto78.5

126.9Teleop146.5

45.8Endgame72.9

107Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	53
teleop	136	178
endgame	64	79
foul	0	0
total	245	310

Result

Final score

245 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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