FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.01 – 440.91

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

283 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.4 ±9.8

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 97.25Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 59.42Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX -10.66Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 747.1 ±8.7

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 153.1Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 69.48Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 218.33Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5829, 6377, 9577

/ 100 compat

Projected

146 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5829, 6377, 9577

Auto

19.0 14%

Teleop

91.4 65%

Endgame

30.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2582, 11242, 6800

/ 100 compat

Projected

440.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2582, 11242, 6800

Auto

72.0 17%

Teleop

223.6 53%

Endgame

126.1 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score146pts

Blue projected score440.9pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -294.9
Score range: 97–490
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 748 vs event baseline 271.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.4Season APEX747.1

19Auto72

91.4Teleop223.6

30.1Endgame126.1

124Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	28
teleop	146	264
endgame	76	158
foul	15	15
total	283	465

Result

Final score

283 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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