FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

285.02 – 219.68

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

429 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 127.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 548.8 ±8.4

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 5.36Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 151.58Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 128.08Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.5 ±10.4

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 124.29Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 42.4Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 52.99Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8507, 2881, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

285 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8507, 2881, 118

Auto

55.1 19%

Teleop

184.6 65%

Endgame

43.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 8%

Blue · 3481, 9444, 10994

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3481, 9444, 10994

Auto

33.1 16%

Teleop

124.0 61%

Endgame

45.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 8%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score285pts

Blue projected score219.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.3
Score range: 171–334
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 538 vs event baseline 271.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

548.8Season APEX230.5

55.1Auto33.1

184.6Teleop124

43.6Endgame45.7

135Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	18
teleop	227	57
endgame	118	34
foul	5	0
total	429	109

Result

Final score

429 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 127.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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