FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

152.67 – 172.37

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

242 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 82 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374 ±9.8

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 88.09Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 67.94Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX -3.36Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.6 ±9.3

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX -6.87Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 84.06Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 95.18Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4734, 10014, 10032

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4734, 10014, 10032

Auto

54.7 38%

Teleop

78.6 54%

Endgame

11.1 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7691, 1477, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7691, 1477, 624

Auto

30.2 19%

Teleop

90.2 56%

Endgame

41.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score152.7pts

Blue projected score172.4pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.7
Score range: 104–221
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 272.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374Season APEX478.6

54.7Auto30.2

78.6Teleop90.2

11.1Endgame41.4

117Consistency167

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	37
teleop	122	148
endgame	56	62
foul	5	0
total	242	247

Result

Final score

242 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 82 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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