FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.62 – 231.58

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

215 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 458.6 ±9.8

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 131.23Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 82.06Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 55.33Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.2 ±9.8

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 133.18Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 59.89Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 38.51Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2582, 7506, 1255

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2582, 7506, 1255

Auto

28.1 11%

Teleop

157.4 60%

Endgame

79.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3005, 3679, 7691

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3005, 3679, 7691

Auto

43.4 19%

Teleop

128.6 57%

Endgame

53.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score268.6pts

Blue projected score231.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37
Score range: 181–320
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 283.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

458.6Season APEX396.2

28.1Auto43.4

157.4Teleop128.6

79Endgame53.7

120Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	42
teleop	104	144
endgame	73	49
foul	10	0
total	215	235

Result

Final score

215 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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