FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

215.56 – 287.81

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

324 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 88.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.7 ±9.8

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 92.28Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 115.37Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 7.91Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.9 ±10.4

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 81.52Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 123.36Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 82.93Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7503, 2468, 11277

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7503, 2468, 11277

Auto

28.8 13%

Teleop

176.5 79%

Endgame

19.1 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 324, 6672, 2587

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 324, 6672, 2587

Auto

39.4 14%

Teleop

153.6 55%

Endgame

85.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score215.6pts

Blue projected score287.8pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.2
Score range: 167–337
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 681 vs event baseline 269.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.7Season APEX378.9

28.8Auto39.4

176.5Teleop153.6

19.1Endgame85.6

100Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	53
teleop	158	230
endgame	116	69
foul	0	5
total	324	357

Result

Final score

324 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 88.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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