FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.11 – 232.05

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

274 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 126.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.2 ±10.4

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 145.01Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 27.3Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX -34.2Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 460.7 ±9.8

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 95Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 124.08Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 12.97Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2728, 2687, 9492

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2728, 2687, 9492

Auto

15.5 11%

Teleop

80.5 57%

Endgame

44.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5892, 1296, 1255

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5892, 1296, 1255

Auto

48.5 22%

Teleop

127.0 56%

Endgame

49.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score138.1pts

Blue projected score232.1pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.9
Score range: 90–280
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 623 vs event baseline 268.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.2Season APEX460.7

15.5Auto48.5

80.5Teleop127

44.3Endgame49.7

169Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	55
teleop	137	196
endgame	75	93
foul	0	5
total	274	349

Result

Final score

274 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 126.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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