FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

430.32 – 282.48

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

385 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 645 ±9.3

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 139.98Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 236.54Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 53.8Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.4 ±9.8

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 33.12Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 161.27Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 88.09Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3005, 6800, 8370

/ 100 compat

Projected

430.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3005, 6800, 8370

Auto

86.2 20%

Teleop

251.7 57%

Endgame

100.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11200, 3847, 3735

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11200, 3847, 3735

Auto

39.6 15%

Teleop

173.3 64%

Endgame

56.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score430.3pts

Blue projected score282.5pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.8
Score range: 234–478
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 627 vs event baseline 266.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

645Season APEX414.4

86.2Auto39.6

251.7Teleop173.3

100.8Endgame56.4

223Consistency168

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	32
teleop	197	73
endgame	141	137
foul	0	0
total	385	242

Result

Final score

385 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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