FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

287.45 – 199.66

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

350 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 67.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 527.2 ±8.4

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 17.68Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 138.52Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 131.25Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231 ±10.4

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 95.81Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 25.65Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 78.2Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5417, 2582, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5417, 2582, 118

Auto

33.3 12%

Teleop

161.1 59%

Endgame

79.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 8%

Blue · 3679, 8507, 6901

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3679, 8507, 6901

Auto

38.1 19%

Teleop

105.6 53%

Endgame

54.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 8%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score287.5pts

Blue projected score199.7pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.8
Score range: 152–335
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 267.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

527.2Season APEX231

33.3Auto38.1

161.1Teleop105.6

79Endgame54.1

199Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	40
teleop	196	57
endgame	116	30
foul	5	0
total	350	127

Result

Final score

350 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 67.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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