FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

322.59 – 376.01

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

250 – 543

Prediction correct · off by 119.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.3 ±9.8

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 83.15Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 62.85Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 176.59Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 593.6 ±9.3

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 214.05Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 85.78Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 76.18Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10994, 5261, 2881

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10994, 5261, 2881

Auto

44.4 14%

Teleop

219.8 67%

Endgame

64.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10340, 9418, 5829

/ 100 compat

Projected

376 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10340, 9418, 5829

Auto

54.2 14%

Teleop

214.2 56%

Endgame

112.6 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.43 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score322.6pts

Blue projected score376pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.4
Score range: 275–424
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 793 vs event baseline 267.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.3Season APEX593.6

44.4Auto54.2

219.8Teleop214.2

64.1Endgame112.6

63Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	76
teleop	108	340
endgame	79	122
foul	5	5
total	250	543

Result

Final score

250 – 543

Prediction correct · off by 119.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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