FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.88 – 210.79

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 55.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.1 ±9.8

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 101.32Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 42.86Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 91.7Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.8 ±10.4

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 16.2Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 68.78Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 125.81Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1477, 4734, 8088

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1477, 4734, 8088

Auto

63.8 26%

Teleop

123.9 51%

Endgame

55.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2687, 6377, 3481

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2687, 6377, 3481

Auto

48.2 26%

Teleop

88.2 48%

Endgame

46.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score235.9pts

Blue projected score210.8pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.1
Score range: 163–284
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 558 vs event baseline 267.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.1Season APEX289.8

63.8Auto48.2

123.9Teleop88.2

55.8Endgame46.5

14Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	49
teleop	177	125
endgame	69	73
foul	0	0
total	311	247

Result

Final score

311 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 55.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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