FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

335.44 – 79.81

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

429 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 69.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 706.8 ±9.3

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 210.98Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 53.47Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 70.99Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.3 ±10.4

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 32.64Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 69.73Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX -22.56Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6800, 10014, 7503

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6800, 10014, 7503

Auto

75.9 23%

Teleop

162.9 50%

Endgame

86.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8370, 3735, 9492

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8370, 3735, 9492

Auto

23.4 38%

Teleop

6.9 11%

Endgame

30.8 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.78 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score335.4pts

Blue projected score79.8pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 255.6
Score range: 32–383
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 555 vs event baseline 266.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

706.8Season APEX222.3

75.9Auto23.4

162.9Teleop6.9

86Endgame30.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	34
teleop	248	57
endgame	87	30
foul	0	5
total	429	126

Result

Final score

429 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 69.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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