FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.6 – 363.29

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.3 ±9.8

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 95.3Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 47.73Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 29.57Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.5 ±10.4

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 115.26Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 149.65Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 98.38Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 624, 8507, 11200

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 624, 8507, 11200

Auto

43.6 26%

Teleop

108.9 64%

Endgame

16.8 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 2587, 2728, 3679

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2587, 2728, 3679

Auto

38.1 11%

Teleop

218.2 61%

Endgame

101.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score172.6pts

Blue projected score363.3pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -190.7
Score range: 125–411
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 440 vs event baseline 269.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324.3Season APEX346.5

43.6Auto38.1

108.9Teleop218.2

16.8Endgame101.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	46
teleop	55	162
endgame	52	98
foul	5	0
total	134	306

Result

Final score

134 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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