FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

362.79 – 431.58

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

349 – 426

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 640.6 ±8.7

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 148.04Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 109.61Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 105.14Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 704.7 ±9.3

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 163.82Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 142.92Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 124.84Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2881, 5829, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2881, 5829, 10014

Auto

77.5 22%

Teleop

202.3 56%

Endgame

79.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2468, 1296, 2728

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2468, 1296, 2728

Auto

69.2 16%

Teleop

255.4 59%

Endgame

105.6 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.4 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score362.8pts

Blue projected score431.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.8
Score range: 312–483
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 775 vs event baseline 283.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

640.6Season APEX704.7

77.5Auto69.2

202.3Teleop255.4

79.4Endgame105.6

50Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	32
teleop	182	286
endgame	88	108
foul	10	0
total	349	426

Result

Final score

349 – 426

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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