FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

263.42 – 323.39

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

183 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 87.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.4 ±10.4

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 132.36Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 118.33Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 12.73Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.1 ±9.8

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 84.15Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 44.41Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 194.83Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8088, 6672, 7691

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8088, 6672, 7691

Auto

51.2 19%

Teleop

167.3 64%

Endgame

44.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4295, 5417, 2881

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4295, 5417, 2881

Auto

40.1 13%

Teleop

163.4 53%

Endgame

102.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score263.4pts

Blue projected score323.4pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60
Score range: 213–373
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 278.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.4Season APEX396.1

51.2Auto40.1

167.3Teleop163.4

44.3Endgame102.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	54
teleop	84	110
endgame	65	65
foul	0	0
total	183	229

Result

Final score

183 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 87.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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