FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

241.29 – 195.95

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

297 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.8 ±9.8

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 54.84Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 61.33Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 125.12Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.8 ±10.4

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 107.14Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 62.43Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 26.38Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6377, 5892, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6377, 5892, 2468

Auto

33.1 13%

Teleop

138.8 56%

Endgame

74.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7506, 9418, 10032

/ 100 compat

Projected

196 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7506, 9418, 10032

Auto

17.8 9%

Teleop

130.7 68%

Endgame

43.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score241.3pts

Blue projected score196pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.3
Score range: 146–291
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 519 vs event baseline 279.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.8Season APEX323.8

33.1Auto17.8

138.8Teleop130.7

74Endgame43.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	51
teleop	187	79
endgame	51	92
foul	0	0
total	297	222

Result

Final score

297 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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