Qualification · Qualification 16
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
416.02 – 203
93%7%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
510 – 395
Prediction correct · off by 143 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 675.6 ±9.3
Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 126.84Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 167.58Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 121.6Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 503.7 ±9.3
Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 35.75Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 89.62Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 211Event APEX 77.63Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1296, 10340, 3481
85
/ 100 compatProjected
416 pts
~2.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1296, 10340, 3481
Auto
36.5 9%
Teleop
259.0 65%
Endgame
100.2 25%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 24%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10994, 3005, 2582
59
/ 100 compatProjected
203 pts
~0.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10994, 3005, 2582
Auto
41.2 21%
Teleop
93.8 47%
Endgame
63.7 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 24%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.92
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score416pts
Blue projected score203pts
Red win probability93%
Event bonus sample210alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 60%
Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 16%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 213
- Score range
- 155–464
- Upset likelihood
- 7%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
675.6Season APEX503.7
36.5Auto41.2
259Teleop93.8
100.2Endgame63.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 90 | 35 |
| teleop | 303 | 251 |
| endgame | 117 | 109 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 510 | 395 |
Result
Final score
510 – 395
Prediction correct · off by 143 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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