FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.61 – 131.62

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 28 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.9 ±10.4

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 95.69Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 23.98Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 45.94Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.4 ±9.8

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 67.85Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 39.81Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 23.96Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 324, 9577, 2687

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 324, 9577, 2687

Auto

32.7 19%

Teleop

76.1 45%

Endgame

61.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10014, 8370, 6901

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10014, 8370, 6901

Auto

33.6 26%

Teleop

54.9 43%

Endgame

40.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score165.6pts

Blue projected score131.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34
Score range: 81–217
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 281.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.9Season APEX341.4

32.7Auto33.6

76.1Teleop54.9

61.1Endgame40.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	45
teleop	53	64
endgame	27	54
foul	30	5
total	146	168

Result

Final score

146 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 28 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree