Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
180.74 – 129.42
65%35%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
399 – 153
Prediction correct · off by 120.9 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 453 ±9.8
Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 37.75Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 72.13Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 70.86Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259 ±10.4
Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 31.69Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 39.73Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 58Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5892, 2728, 1477
51
/ 100 compatProjected
180.7 pts
~2.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5892, 2728, 1477
Auto
18.9 11%
Teleop
101.9 57%
Endgame
58.5 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 16%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6377, 5417, 3676
45
/ 100 compatProjected
129.4 pts
~1.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6377, 5417, 3676
Auto
29.6 23%
Teleop
49.3 39%
Endgame
47.9 38%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 16%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.25
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score180.7pts
Blue projected score129.4pts
Red win probability65%
Event bonus sample210alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 46%
Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 51.3
- Score range
- 79–231
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
453Season APEX259
18.9Auto29.6
101.9Teleop49.3
58.5Endgame47.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 68 | 15 |
| teleop | 233 | 56 |
| endgame | 98 | 72 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 399 | 153 |
Result
Final score
399 – 153
Prediction correct · off by 120.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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