Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
170.22 – 236.86
30%70%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
324 – 300
Prediction missed · off by 108.5 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 72.61Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 45.28Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 52.33Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.9 ±10.4
Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 60.29Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 44.57Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 132Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6672, 11242, 3679
49
/ 100 compatProjected
170.2 pts
~1.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6672, 11242, 3679
Auto
18.4 13%
Teleop
97.3 67%
Endgame
28.9 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 19%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9418, 10994, 8088
64
/ 100 compatProjected
236.9 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9418, 10994, 8088
Auto
47.4 20%
Teleop
114.3 48%
Endgame
75.1 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 19%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.99
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score170.2pts
Blue projected score236.9pts
Red win probability30%
Event bonus sample210alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%
Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 11%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -66.6
- Score range
- 121–286
- Upset likelihood
- 30%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
385.7Season APEX249.9
18.4Auto47.4
97.3Teleop114.3
28.9Endgame75.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 46 | 56 |
| teleop | 173 | 163 |
| endgame | 105 | 81 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 324 | 300 |
Result
Final score
324 – 300
Prediction missed · off by 108.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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