Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
176.14 – 207.01
41%59%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
350 – 298
Prediction missed · off by 132.4 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 51.43Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 97.48Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 211Event APEX 27.23Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.5 ±9.8
Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 84.7Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 63.69Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 58.62Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9444, 1296, 2582
54
/ 100 compatProjected
176.1 pts
~1.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9444, 1296, 2582
Auto
25.3 15%
Teleop
94.0 55%
Endgame
50.2 30%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 50%
Supercharged: 12%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 5261, 3005, 3735
58
/ 100 compatProjected
207 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5261, 3005, 3735
Auto
33.4 18%
Teleop
112.8 60%
Endgame
41.9 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 50%
Supercharged: 12%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.84
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score176.1pts
Blue projected score207pts
Red win probability41%
Event bonus sample210alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 50%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 9%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -30.9
- Score range
- 128–255
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
540.2Season APEX441.5
25.3Auto33.4
94Teleop112.8
50.2Endgame41.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 50 | 73 |
| teleop | 194 | 150 |
| endgame | 91 | 75 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 350 | 298 |
Result
Final score
350 – 298
Prediction missed · off by 132.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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