FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

248.78 – 263.49

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

290 – 252

Prediction missed · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.7 ±9.8

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 88.35Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 83.66Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 76.77Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.5 ±10.4

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 160.66Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 41.58Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 61.25Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3481, 3735, 11242

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3481, 3735, 11242

Auto

47.1 20%

Teleop

109.9 47%

Endgame

75.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6672, 10032, 5261

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6672, 10032, 5261

Auto

37.6 14%

Teleop

159.3 60%

Endgame

67.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score248.8pts

Blue projected score263.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.7
Score range: 198–314
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 542 vs event baseline 283.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.7Season APEX261.5

47.1Auto37.6

109.9Teleop159.3

75.3Endgame67.7

89Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	43
teleop	121	178
endgame	66	31
foul	60	0
total	290	252

Result

Final score

290 – 252

Prediction missed · off by 26.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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